political uncertainty

We examine the effect of populism on financial markets around national elections.

24th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis & International Finance 2020 (Rethymno, Crete)

We use data from betting markets to analyze the sensitivity of stock returns to potential outcomes of political events such as elections. By classifying stocks into expected conditional winners and losers prior to such an event, we form portfolios that generate large positive returns after the event date, conditional on correctly anticipating the outcome. We illustrate this using data from the 2016 US presidential election and the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Research data, plots and information regarding the 2020 US presidential election.

Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society 2019 (Jerusalem, Israel)